Kaichi Uchida vs Naoki Nakagawa Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• In recent play over the last six months, Nakagawa outperforms Uchida on second serves, winning 47.72% of points compared to Uchida's 43.9%. Does this give Nakagawa an edge in service games?
• In return games, Uchida slightly leads Nakagawa in winning opponents' second serve points at 41.4% versus 41.07%. How much does this minor advantage impact Uchida's overall play?
• First serve return stats are nearly identical, with Uchida at 22.53% and Nakagawa at 22.38%, suggesting neither has a distinct advantage here.
• Under pressure, Uchida shows resilience by saving 56.32% of breakpoints, compared to Nakagawa's 53.49%.
• Looking at their yearly performance, Uchida edges out slightly with a win rate of 52.38%, while Nakagawa stands at 51.02%.
• Surface preferences contrast: Uchida excels on clay with a 56% win rate, whereas Nakagawa prefers I.hard surfaces, boasting a 61% win rate.
• Both players have similar levels of experience at the Challengers/ITF tournaments > $10K, with Uchida winning 45.45% of matches and Nakagawa 44.44%.
• Head-to-head encounters favor Nakagawa, who has won both previous meetings, capturing four out of five sets against Uchida.
• Match durations between them average 2:1:30, with their latest encounter resulting in Nakagawa's 6-3, 6-2 win in the semifinals on a hard court in 2021.
• In extreme pressure and tiebreaks, Nakagawa leads, having won their sole tiebreak and the deciding set played.
• Over the past year, Uchida faced slightly higher-quality opponents, with an average rank of 412.21, compared to Nakagawa's 424.86.
• In deciding sets against all players, Uchida has a 56% win rate, just a hair above Nakagawa's 55% in similar scenarios.
• When examining break point conversion rates recently, Nakagawa proves more effective, converting 28.41% of opportunities, compared to Uchida's 23.39%.

Editorial Prediction (September 13, 2025, UTC):

As Uchida and Nakagawa prepare for another face-off, several statistical indicators favor Nakagawa. Recent performance shows that Nakagawa holds a firm advantage in second serve points and breakpoint conversion, both critical components of match play.

Although Uchida marginally dominates in returning opponents' second serves and has faced slightly tougher opponents, Nakagawa's pressure play and consistency in direct meetings cast him as a formidable contender.

Their historical head-to-head record further supports this prediction, with Nakagawa emerging victorious in both prior encounters. Given these factors, Nakagawa is the tentative favorite to win the upcoming match against Uchida.